What the year-end numbers show
When you shop for a pre-owned car in Florida, the wholesale market often sets the tone for what dealers pay before they price vehicles on the lot. Cox Automotive reported that the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) ended December 2025 at 205.5, up 0.4% compared with December 2024 and up 0.1% from November 2025.
That modest finish matters because the index adjusts for mix, mileage, and seasonality, giving dealers and analysts a consistent yardstick. Non-seasonally adjusted wholesale prices were up 0.5% year over year even after a 0.4% dip from November, which Cox noted is close to the long-term pattern for December, when the market is usually flat.
For shoppers, stability at wholesale often translates into more predictable retail pricing after dealers account for reconditioning, transport, and their disclosed fees. It does not guarantee lower payments, but it can reduce the wild month-to-month swings that made budgeting harder in prior years.
Dealers also watch Manheim’s mid-month checkpoint releases, which Cox stresses are not official index readings. Those mid-month updates can hint at direction but should not be traded like month-end figures.
Documenting market context helps if you negotiate trade values or selling prices privately. Citing independent index trends is stronger than anecdotal listings alone.
Why 2025 felt volatile even as values steadied
Cox Automotive said used-vehicle values experienced volatility through 2025, influenced by tariffs, pricing pressure, and affordability constraints. Yet the index stayed above its March 2025 low of 202.6 for the rest of the year, supported by retail demand.
An initial estimate from Cox’s vAuto Live Market View indicated retail used-vehicle sales in 2025 were about 2% higher year over year. That combination—firm retail demand with wholesale values that stopped free-falling—helps explain why many three-year-old vehicles still command prices that feel “near new” to buyers comparing against incentivized new models.
If you are cross-shopping new and used, this backdrop is a reminder to compare total cost: monthly payment, insurance, fuel, and expected depreciation. A stable wholesale index suggests depreciation may normalize, but retail transaction prices still reflect local supply in markets such as Miami, Orlando, and Tampa.
Retail shoppers rarely see the index quoted on window stickers, yet it influences acquisition costs at auction lanes that feed Florida stores. When acquisition rises, dealers may hold firmer on discounting unless a unit ages on the lot.
Dealers participating in high-volume acquisitions watch conversion and days’ supply daily; asking about store-specific aging can reveal flexibility not visible in national press releases.
EVs are a growing slice of the index
Cox reported that electric vehicles represented about 3.3% of the Manheim index weighting at year-end 2025, with influence expected to grow as more off-lease EVs return to auction. In December, Cox’s EV index was up 2.5% year over year while the non-EV index rose 0.4%.
Luxury segments with heavy EV mix outperformed some mainstream segments where trucks and compact cars saw larger year-over-year declines in certain windows of 2025. That does not mean every used EV is appreciating, but it does signal that wholesale buyers are pricing battery-electric models with more nuance than in the steep depreciation seen earlier in the decade.
Florida shoppers considering a used EV should still verify battery health, charging options, and insurance quotes. Wholesale strength is only one input; reconditioning costs for EVs can differ from gasoline models.
Comparing multiple vehicles on the same lot still beats timing the national index. Local recon costs, transport from port markets, and seasonal tourist demand in Florida can move a specific price away from the national average.
Supply, conversion, and days on hand
At the end of December, Cox said wholesale days’ supply stood at 31.7 days—1.6 days lower than a year earlier but 1.1 days higher than November. Before the pandemic, Cox noted that supply often averaged around 36 days at year-end as holiday schedules slow sales.
Sales conversion at Manheim was 56.8% for the period, 4.6 percentage points above the recent three-year average and up 4.4 points from November. Higher conversion generally indicates dealers are finding inventory they are willing to buy, which can keep retail lots stocked.
For consumers, balanced supply can mean more choice without the empty lots of 2021–2022. It can also mean dealers have less urgency to discount aging units—so comparing multiple stores, as you would across Off Lease Only’s Florida locations, remains important.
If you sell a car back to a dealer during the same period, wholesale trends also affect your trade-in offer. Strong retail demand with stable wholesale can support trade values, while soft conversion rates may pull offers down.
What Cox expects in 2026
Cox Automotive forecast retail used-vehicle sales of about 20.3 million units in 2026, down 0.7% from 2025, while noting that 2025 sales were stronger than expected. The firm cited constrained retail and wholesale supply tied to lower production and fewer lease maturities returning to market, with lease maturities rising over the course of the year.
On values, Cox projected a relatively normal year for wholesale prices, with the Manheim index rising about 2% by the end of 2026. That would imply gradual depreciation rather than another shock in either direction.
Shoppers planning purchases in 2026 should still pre-qualify for financing, review vehicle history reports, and budget for tax, tag, title, and dealer fees disclosed upfront. Macro forecasts are guides, not guarantees for any single VIN on a lot in Broward or Palm Beach County.
Fleet and rental consignments can spike auction supply in certain months, temporarily depressing segment prices even when the headline index is flat. Retail buyers benefit when those units are absorbed without hitting local lots all at once.
Takeaways for Florida used-car buyers
The Manheim index is a wholesale benchmark, not a retail price list. Still, when wholesale values stabilize, dealers can plan recon and pricing with more confidence, which often flows through to transparent, market-based stickers.
If you are waiting for a crash in used prices, Cox’s year-end data and 2026 outlook suggest a return toward typical depreciation instead. That makes timing less about guessing the market and more about finding the right vehicle, mileage, and history for your budget.
Off Lease Only shoppers can use these trends as context while browsing thousands of late-model vehicles across the state—then validate any specific deal with a test drive, history report, and out-the-door price comparison.
Interest rates and insurance costs still dominate monthly budgets for many households, so a flat wholesale index does not automatically mean payments fall. Shop financing and coverage in parallel with vehicle price.
